Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 18 | 10.4 | 11.5% | 95 | 0.83% |
| 10-19 | 14 | 12.1 | 13.1% | 108 | 0.79% |
| 20-29 | 19 | 17.3 | 20.8% | 172 | 0.82% |
| 30-39 | 23 | 17.4 | 18.4% | 152 | 1.12% |
| 40-49 | 10 | 10.1 | 12.3% | 102 | 0.97% |
| 50-59 | 12 | 9.4 | 10.5% | 87 | 0.69% |
| 60-69 | 10 | 7.0 | 7.9% | 65 | 0.56% |
| 70+ | 4 | 4.9 | 5.6% | 46 | 0.44% |
| All ages | 110 | 88.7 | 100% | 827 | 0.79% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26 | 18353 | 64940 | 573 | 146 | 741 |
| Nov 27 | 18425 | 64994 | 573 | 146 | 721 |
| Nov 28 | 18425 | 65025 | 573 | 146 | 623 |
| Nov 29 | 18530 | 65097 | 576 | 152 | 650 |
| Nov 30 | 18661 | 65169 | 578 | 152 | 703 |
| Dec 01 | 18770 | 65294 | 578 | 152 | 812 |
| Dec 02 | 18880 | 65357 | 580 | 152 | 827 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26 | 12170 | 37867 | 510 | 127 | 420 |
| Nov 27 | 12177 | 37892 | 510 | 127 | 370 |
| Nov 28 | 12177 | 37908 | 510 | 128 | 323 |
| Nov 29 | 12358 | 37946 | 514 | 128 | 431 |
| Nov 30 | 12409 | 37993 | 518 | 129 | 442 |
| Dec 01 | 12504 | 38075 | 523 | 129 | 526 |
| Dec 02 | 12563 | 38117 | 524 | 130 | 517 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 6.0 | 11.5% | 59 | 0.76% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 6.7 | 11.3% | 58 | 0.69% |
| 20-29 | 8 | 6.4 | 12.3% | 63 | 0.89% |
| 30-39 | 17 | 10.7 | 19.6% | 101 | 1.2% |
| 40-49 | 12 | 8.3 | 14.6% | 75 | 0.97% |
| 50-59 | 8 | 7.4 | 13% | 67 | 0.69% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 5.3 | 9.3% | 48 | 0.57% |
| 70+ | 4 | 5.0 | 8.4% | 43 | 0.6% |
| All ages | 59 | 55.9 | 100% | 514 | 0.79% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26 | 9510 | 25186 | 425 | 101 | 389 |
| Nov 27 | 9522 | 25199 | 427 | 101 | 365 |
| Nov 28 | 9547 | 25216 | 427 | 101 | 325 |
| Nov 29 | 9572 | 25238 | 427 | 101 | 315 |
| Nov 30 | 9640 | 25282 | 429 | 101 | 354 |
| Dec 01 | 9708 | 25322 | 430 | 101 | 399 |
| Dec 02 | 9777 | 25371 | 431 | 101 | 424 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 5 | 4.3 | 10.8% | 46 | 0.85% |
| 10-19 | 10 | 5.1 | 11.8% | 50 | 0.92% |
| 20-29 | 7 | 5.9 | 13.2% | 56 | 1.24% |
| 30-39 | 12 | 9.4 | 19.3% | 82 | 1.51% |
| 40-49 | 7 | 5.4 | 11.6% | 49 | 0.98% |
| 50-59 | 12 | 6.6 | 14.9% | 63 | 0.93% |
| 60-69 | 11 | 4.7 | 11.8% | 50 | 0.79% |
| 70+ | 5 | 3.1 | 6.6% | 28 | 0.44% |
| All ages | 69 | 44.6 | 100% | 424 | 0.94% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26 | 19382 | 75549 | 741 | 124 | 637 |
| Nov 27 | 19422 | 75608 | 742 | 124 | 566 |
| Nov 28 | 19478 | 75644 | 742 | 124 | 552 |
| Nov 29 | 19597 | 75827 | 743 | 125 | 580 |
| Nov 30 | 19731 | 75981 | 748 | 125 | 692 |
| Dec 01 | 19850 | 76182 | 749 | 125 | 758 |
| Dec 02 | 19958 | 76317 | 752 | 128 | 812 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 16 | 16.0 | 15.9% | 137 | 1.16% |
| 10-19 | 16 | 14.0 | 13.5% | 116 | 0.7% |
| 20-29 | 16 | 15.6 | 15.6% | 134 | 0.63% |
| 30-39 | 17 | 20.4 | 19.3% | 166 | 1.22% |
| 40-49 | 18 | 12.9 | 13% | 112 | 0.82% |
| 50-59 | 12 | 10.1 | 10.9% | 94 | 0.66% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 8.1 | 7.5% | 65 | 0.46% |
| 70+ | 7 | 4.3 | 4.3% | 37 | 0.28% |
| All ages | 108 | 101.4 | 100% | 861 | 0.73% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26 | 62074 | 438887 | 2045 | 386 | 1571 |
| Nov 27 | 62117 | 439063 | 2045 | 386 | 1420 |
| Nov 28 | 62162 | 439385 | 2045 | 386 | 1299 |
| Nov 29 | 62515 | 439862 | 2048 | 387 | 1425 |
| Nov 30 | 62837 | 440504 | 2058 | 387 | 1682 |
| Dec 01 | 63152 | 441198 | 2056 | 388 | 1846 |
| Dec 02 | 63533 | 441801 | 2061 | 388 | 1957 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 36 | 36.9 | 16.8% | 329 | 0.55% |
| 10-19 | 42 | 31.7 | 14.4% | 282 | 0.4% |
| 20-29 | 91 | 43.4 | 18.7% | 365 | 0.35% |
| 30-39 | 74 | 39.1 | 17.9% | 350 | 0.46% |
| 40-49 | 43 | 28.0 | 12.7% | 248 | 0.38% |
| 50-59 | 45 | 20.7 | 9.4% | 183 | 0.28% |
| 60-69 | 29 | 13.6 | 6.1% | 119 | 0.22% |
| 70+ | 22 | 9.6 | 4.1% | 81 | 0.16% |
| All ages | 381 | 223.0 | 100% | 1957 | 0.36% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26 | 970937 | 3673686 | 48802 | 9953 | 33795 |
| Nov 27 | 972837 | 3676250 | 48821 | 9954 | 31307 |
| Nov 28 | 974871 | 3678433 | 48830 | 9955 | 29170 |
| Nov 29 | 980775 | 3683324 | 49045 | 10005 | 30751 |
| Nov 30 | 986229 | 3688705 | 49299 | 10048 | 34571 |
| Dec 01 | 992384 | 3695497 | 49436 | 10095 | 38962 |
| Dec 02 | 997687 | 3700652 | 49679 | 10134 | 39191 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 634 | 530.3 | 12.5% | 4907 | 0.77% |
| 10-19 | 743 | 570.0 | 13.6% | 5323 | 0.7% |
| 20-29 | 834 | 575.7 | 13.6% | 5326 | 0.7% |
| 30-39 | 961 | 740.0 | 17.5% | 6859 | 0.91% |
| 40-49 | 714 | 579.7 | 13.7% | 5383 | 0.77% |
| 50-59 | 622 | 522.6 | 12.6% | 4935 | 0.61% |
| 60-69 | 454 | 389.0 | 9.4% | 3679 | 0.49% |
| 70+ | 341 | 290.7 | 7.1% | 2763 | 0.43% |
| All ages | 5303 | 4199.6 | 100% | 39191 | 0.67% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.5 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.64 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-12-25 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 9987"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges